Thu, Dec 11, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Ottawa Senators 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 47 | 112 | 110 | 629 |
| CBJ | 19 | 211 | 07 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:58OTTDavid PerronAssists: Dylan Cozens, Drake Batherson · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 8:11OTTDrake BathersonAssists: David Perron, Dylan Cozens · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 14:55OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Drake Batherson, Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P1 18:04CBJBoone JennerAssists: Adam Fantilli, Zach Werenski · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P1 19:26OTTMichael AmadioGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Ridly Greig · Backhand, 0.19 xG4–1
- P2 3:02CBJDante FabbroAssists: Boone Jenner, Kent Johnson · Slap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P2 8:10CBJDmitri VoronkovPPAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Zach Werenski · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–3
- P2 17:59OTTTim StützleAssists: Michael Amadio, Artem Zub · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 18:37OTTClaude GirouxENAssists: Michael Amadio · Wrist, 0.50 xG6–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 14:01CBJCharlie Coyle: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:11OTTDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 11:33CBJCole Sillinger: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Batherson – Cozens11:36
xG 0.56–0.20 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Greig13:40
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Eller – Cousins – MacDermid2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Tkachuk – Stützle10:49
xG 0.27–0.35 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub19:42
xG 0.76–0.25 (76%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
- Jensen – Matinpalo13:45
xG 0.65–0.20 (76%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Spence – Kleven15:03
xG 0.65–0.54 (54%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Wood – Sillinger12:08
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Jenner – Johnson – Fantilli11:50
xG 0.40–0.44 (47%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Gaunce – Lundeström – Chinakhov8:28
xG 0.02–0.28 (6%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Monahan – Marchenko – Voronkov13:12
xG 0.17–0.82 (18%)attempts 11–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Fabbro2:23
xG 0.14–0.02 (85%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Werenski – Provorov20:16
xG 0.64–0.59 (52%)attempts 25–18goals 1–2
- Smith – Fabbro9:15
xG 0.28–0.46 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).