Thu, Dec 11, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Boston Bruins 6, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 37 | 19 | 28 | 624 |
| WPG | 213 | 111 | 05 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:59WPGMorgan BarronAssists: Josh Morrissey, Cole Koepke · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 8:24BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 10:28BOSCasey MittelstadtPPAssists: Mason Lohrei, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P1 11:08BOSSean KuralyAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Mark Kastelic · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–1
- P1 13:37WPGAlex IafalloAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Dylan Samberg · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 14:36BOSHampus LindholmGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Morgan Geekie · Slap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P2 17:46WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Cole Perfetti, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 14:43BOSElias LindholmAssists: David Pastrnak, Nikita Zadorov · Snap, 0.18 xG5–3
- P3 18:04BOSDavid PastrnakENAssists: Morgan Geekie, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.66 xG6–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:03BOSMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:03WPGLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:27BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:25WPGGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:47WPGMorgan Barron: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:59BOSElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:43BOSMorgan Geekie: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:36BOSAndrew Peeke: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Khusnutdinov – Minten7:09
xG 0.69–0.15 (83%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Geekie6:51
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Zacha – Mittelstadt – Steeves4:36
xG 0.09–0.06 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Jeannot – Kastelic10:27
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – McAvoy4:31
xG 0.25–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Zadorov – McAvoy10:05
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Lindholm – Aspirot2:46
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Iafallo12:29
xG 1.04–0.76 (58%)attempts 14–15goals 1–2
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Koepke7:34
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Toews – Nyquist – Barron9:18
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Vilardi – Perfetti9:03
xG 0.02–0.33 (6%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk10:12
xG 0.56–0.19 (75%)attempts 21–6goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey8:57
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Samberg3:01
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).