Thu, Dec 11, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Detroit Red Wings 1, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 19 | 012 | 128 |
| EDM | 17 | 215 | 17 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:25EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 2:46EDMMattias EkholmGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 5:41DETSimon EdvinssonAssists: Nate Danielson, Elmer Soderblom · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 17:48EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.23 xG1–3
- P3 18:43EDMZach HymanENAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.75 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:24DETPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:42EDMMatt Savoie: Interference2 min
- P2 10:07EDMMattias Ekholm: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:27DETBen Chiarot: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSoderblom – Kasper – Danielson7:05
xG 0.56–0.01 (98%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat11:07
xG 0.83–0.67 (55%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie12:15
xG 0.46–0.51 (48%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Compher – Rasmussen – Berggren9:20
xG 0.11–0.47 (19%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson15:17
xG 0.96–0.60 (62%)attempts 23–8goals 1–1
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka15:46
xG 0.50–0.65 (43%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Johansson11:04
xG 0.49–0.85 (36%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid11:43
xG 0.62–0.25 (71%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Lazar – Mangiapane – Tomasek6:49
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Podkolzin – Savoie13:46
xG 0.66–0.71 (48%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
- Henrique – Janmark – Frederic7:59
xG 0.01–0.41 (2%)attempts 1–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Regula14:38
xG 1.37–0.38 (78%)attempts 22–10goals 1–1
- Ekholm – Bouchard15:27
xG 0.60–0.77 (44%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Kulak – Emberson12:32
xG 0.08–0.55 (13%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).