Fri, Dec 12, 2025·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Seattle Kraken 3, Utah Mammoth 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 09 | 116 | 212 | 337 |
| UTA | 012 | 213 | 38 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:35SEAMason MarchmentAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Chandler Stephenson · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 8:09UTANick SchmaltzUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 13:24UTAKailer YamamotoAssists: Liam O'Brien, Kevin Stenlund · Snap, 0.62 xG1–2
- P3 7:50SEAMason MarchmentAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Brandon Montour · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 12:55UTADylan GuentherPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 17:49UTAJJ PeterkaENGWGAssists: Kevin Stenlund · Backhand, 0.71 xG2–4
- P3 18:58UTALawson CrouseENAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Kevin Stenlund · Snap, 0.75 xG2–5
- P3 19:17SEABen MeyersAssists: Tye Kartye, Ryan Winterton · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:34UTAOlli Maatta: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:47SEAAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 4:32UTALawson Crouse: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:32SEARyan Lindgren: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:13UTAJohn Marino: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:31UTAIan Cole: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:34SEARyan Lindgren: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:24UTAJJ Peterka: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestKakko – Nyman – Wright9:22
xG 0.75–0.55 (58%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Eberle – Tolvanen – Beniers10:31
xG 0.48–0.33 (60%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Gaudreau – Marchment10:22
xG 0.52–0.45 (53%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Kartye – Winterton – Meyers7:41
xG 0.15–1.25 (11%)attempts 5–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Larsson – Dunn15:34
xG 1.13–1.14 (50%)attempts 24–18goals 0–1
- Oleksiak – Mahura10:25
xG 0.46–0.68 (41%)attempts 9–23goals 1–0
- Montour – Lindgren14:20
xG 0.29–0.94 (24%)attempts 4–19goals 1–1
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestO'Brien – Stenlund – Yamamoto6:47
xG 1.08–0.21 (84%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Carcone – McBain – But8:33
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 18–2goals 0–0
- Crouse – Hayton – Guenther8:33
xG 0.22–0.35 (38%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Peterka13:45
xG 0.77–0.98 (44%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Marino12:13
xG 0.62–0.20 (76%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Marino – Durzi2:12
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Sergachev – Durzi10:30
xG 0.82–0.57 (59%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).