Sat, Dec 13, 2025·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Ottawa Senators 2, Minnesota Wild 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 118 | 110 | 236 |
| MIN | 05 | 216 | 14 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:54MINTyler PitlickAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Nico Sturm · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 16:02MINRyan HartmanPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Danila Yurov · Snap, 0.29 xG0–2
- P2 19:37OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Dylan Cozens, Drake Batherson · Poke, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 5:45OTTDylan CozensPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 19:36MINJoel Eriksson EkGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson · Snap, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:34OTTRidly Greig: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:56OTTDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P2 14:04OTTTyler Kleven: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:34MINDavid Jiricek: Holding2 min
- P2 17:58MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00MINRyan Hartman: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:00OTTRidly Greig: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:09MINKirill Kaprizov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:33MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:33OTTTim Stützle: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:28MINDaemon Hunt: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestZetterlund – Tkachuk – Stützle10:54
xG 1.24–0.16 (88%)attempts 21–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Greig10:06
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Cousins – MacDermid – Halliday2:30
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Perron – Batherson – Cozens9:29
xG 0.41–0.88 (32%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven7:52
xG 0.72–0.09 (89%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub11:50
xG 0.67–0.34 (66%)attempts 19–5goals 0–1
- Spence – Sanderson5:18
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestAube-Kubel – Trenin – Sturm2:54
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Kaprizov – Yurov8:54
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Jones – Sturm3:20
xG 0.09–0.06 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Hartman – Aube-Kubel – Trenin5:21
xG 0.13–0.31 (29%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Spurgeon12:24
xG 0.82–0.46 (64%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Kiersted – Jiricek9:10
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Hunt2:33
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).