Sat, Dec 13, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Montréal Canadiens 4, New York Rangers 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 37 | 14 | 06 | 01 | 418 |
| NYR | 211 | 28 | 05 | 15 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:41MTLZachary BolducAssists: Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 14:10MTLArber XhekajAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Alexandre Texier · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 16:18MTLJake EvansAssists: Lane Hutson, Joseph Veleno · Snap, 0.09 xG3–0
- P1 18:49NYRNoah LabaPPAssists: Will Cuylle, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–1
- P1 19:08NYRArtemi PanarinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 3:17MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki · Slap, 0.19 xG4–2
- P2 7:22NYRWill CuylleAssists: Matthew Robertson, Noah Laba · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–3
- P2 7:58NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Matthew Robertson, Conor Sheary · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–4
- OT 2:56NYRJ.T. MillerPPGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:59MTLLane Hutson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:08MTLNoah Dobson: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P1 19:52NYRVladislav Gavrikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:24NYRWill Borgen: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:24MTLOwen Beck: Roughing2 min
- OT 2:29MTLJake Evans: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Bolduc14:22
xG 0.76–0.34 (69%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Gallagher – Evans – Veleno9:29
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Anderson – Texier – Beck7:42
xG 0.09–0.20 (32%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Kapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov10:00
xG 0.19–1.19 (14%)attempts 2–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Dobson – Hutson19:16
xG 0.76–0.79 (49%)attempts 19–22goals 2–1
- Hutson – Engstrom2:11
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Xhekaj – Engstrom7:21
xG 0.05–0.20 (19%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Panarin – Lafrenière13:52
xG 1.47–0.32 (82%)attempts 22–9goals 0–1
- Carrick – Raddysh – Chmelar6:22
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Berard – Cuylle – Laba9:34
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 9–6goals 1–2
- Trocheck – Miller – Sheary13:50
xG 0.39–0.76 (34%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorgen – Robertson11:36
xG 0.63–0.06 (92%)attempts 20–4goals 2–0
- Gavrikov – Schneider19:13
xG 0.68–0.61 (53%)attempts 18–22goals 0–1
- Soucy – Gavrikov3:00
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).