Sat, Dec 13, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 09 | 17 | 210 | 326 |
| CBJ | 19 | 010 | 111 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:02CBJCharlie CoyleAssists: Zach Werenski, Cole Sillinger · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 0:41VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 4:49CBJEgor ChinakhovAssists: Dante Fabbro, Kent Johnson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 5:52VGKBen HuttonAssists: Mitch Marner, Kaedan Korczak · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 13:13VGKBrayden McNabbGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:49VGKBrandon Saad: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:02CBJDmitri Voronkov: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:16CBJDamon Severson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:31CBJBrendan Smith: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 8:14VGKBrett Howden: Holding2 min
- P3 17:01VGKBrayden McNabb: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Howden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Kolesar – Reinhardt5:23
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Marner – Howden – Reinhardt2:27
xG 0.13–0.02 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel7:42
xG 0.34–0.24 (58%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Saad – Hertl – Dorofeyev6:27
xG 0.07–0.04 (63%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Korczak12:09
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Korczak3:04
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Whitecloud11:39
xG 0.11–0.29 (27%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Marchenko – Fantilli12:19
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Gaunce – Chinakhov – Johnson5:28
xG 0.15–0.03 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Monahan – Lundeström – Voronkov10:26
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Coyle – Wood – Sillinger11:10
xG 0.50–0.45 (53%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Mateychuk15:53
xG 0.81–0.26 (76%)attempts 20–14goals 1–1
- Severson – Provorov17:43
xG 0.50–0.46 (52%)attempts 16–23goals 0–0
- Smith – Fabbro10:12
xG 0.21–0.46 (31%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).