Sat, Dec 13, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Florida Panthers 4, Dallas Stars 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 02 | 313 | 18 | 423 |
| DAL | 02 | 07 | 06 | 015 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:19FLAAnton LundellGWGAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 5:45FLASam BennettAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Brad Marchand · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 19:45FLABrad MarchandPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Seth Jones · Snap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 17:12FLABrad MarchandENAssists: Anton Lundell · Snap, 0.53 xG4–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 16:06FLAMackie Samoskevich: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:05DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:05FLANoah Gregor: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:14DALMavrik Bourque: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:53FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P2 17:16FLAJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:11DALIlya Lyubushkin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 12:46DALJustin Hryckowian: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:46FLAEvan Rodrigues: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:05DALAlexander Petrovic: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:05DALAlexander Petrovic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00DALRadek Faksa: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell9:11
xG 0.38–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Greer – Rodrigues – Samoskevich9:59
xG 0.40–0.27 (59%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Marchand – Verhaeghe – Bennett10:34
xG 0.48–0.56 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Gregor – Boqvist – Studnicka4:34
xG 0.02–0.64 (3%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Mikkola14:32
xG 0.75–0.32 (70%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling15:08
xG 0.59–0.56 (52%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Petry – Balinskis10:28
xG 0.10–0.49 (16%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Faksa – Bäck7:00
xG 0.42–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Duchene – Johnston2:53
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Steel – Bourque – Hryckowian2:56
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Steel – Johnston6:05
xG 0.25–0.24 (52%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCapobianco – Lyubushkin5:18
xG 0.44–0.05 (89%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen12:02
xG 0.46–0.38 (55%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley3:17
xG 0.03–0.02 (56%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).