Sat, Dec 13, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
Nashville Predators 2, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 013 | 18 | 229 |
| COL | 211 | 115 | 115 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:26COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 11:47COLJack DruryAssists: Cale Makar, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 12:37NSHJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 9:57COLVictor OlofssonGWGAssists: Samuel Girard, Sam Malinski · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 16:26COLValeri NichushkinENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.81 xG1–4
- P3 18:57NSHTyson JostAssists: Fedor Svechkov · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:13COLSam Malinski: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:56NSHReid Schaefer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:34COLValeri Nichushkin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:59COLSam Malinski: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:00NSHTyson Jost: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:39NSHTyson Jost: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:12NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Marchessault – Bunting6:20
xG 0.48–0.07 (88%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista7:03
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- McCarron – Jost – Schaefer3:32
xG 0.15–0.44 (26%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Svechkov – Wood6:27
xG 0.24–0.80 (23%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Blankenburg7:47
xG 0.58–0.12 (82%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Hague – Perbix3:42
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Josi – Perbix10:21
xG 0.48–0.60 (44%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Landeskog – Nichushkin7:07
xG 0.91–0.11 (90%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Kelly – Drury – Kiviranta6:23
xG 0.47–0.13 (79%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Nichushkin2:01
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Colton – Necas8:32
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar11:05
xG 1.00–0.38 (73%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Burns – Manson11:59
xG 0.99–0.67 (59%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Girard – Malinski11:44
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).