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Ice Lab

Sun, Dec 14, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark

Vancouver Canucks 2, New Jersey Devils 1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 76% of the time.

NJD winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN280601215
NJD0511308126

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:01VANJake DeBruskPPAssists: Conor Garland, Zeev Buium · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
  2. P1 6:48VANZeev BuiumPPGWGAssists: Conor Garland, Thatcher Demko · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
  3. P2 4:02NJDLuke HughesAssists: Jesper Bratt, Dawson Mercer · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 0:43NJDDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min · PPG
  2. P1 5:44NJDStefan Noesen: Boarding2 min · PPG
  3. P1 13:03VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min
  4. P1 13:45VANKiefer Sherwood: Closing hand on puck2 min
  5. P1 16:38NJDXavier Parent: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 1:10VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
47% to win53% to win
← VAN attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Kampf
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANNJD
15Shots on goal26
1.7Expected goals3.2
40Shot attempts60
27Faceoffs won29
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
22Hits18
16Blocked shots11
12Giveaways16
4Takeaways4

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Vancouver Canucks

Forward lines

  1. bestBoeser – DeBrusk – Rossi10:10

    xG 0.30–0.20 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0

  2. Kane – Sherwood – O'Connor9:50

    xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0

  3. Karlsson – Ohgren – Sasson5:39

    xG 0.01–0.02 (33%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

  4. Garland – Kampf – Ohgren2:48

    xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestMyers – Buium12:54

    xG 0.55–0.14 (80%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0

  2. Myers – Pettersson2:05

    xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  3. Willander – Buium3:22

    xG 0.02–0.21 (7%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0

New Jersey Devils

Forward lines

  1. bestBratt – Hischier – Mercer13:59

    xG 0.73–0.17 (81%)attempts 21–4goals 0–0

  2. Palat – Brown – Glass11:25

    xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0

  3. Glendening – Crookshank – Parent5:02

    xG 0.03–0.04 (48%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0

  4. Noesen – Lammikko – Cotter8:55

    xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestHamilton – Siegenthaler12:41

    xG 0.69–0.34 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0

  2. Dillon – Hughes12:24

    xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0

  3. White – Cholowski10:00

    xG 0.27–0.14 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 3.2 xGVAN 1.7 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 18/100 · #1135 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.94 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 47% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 76% of the time.

NJD winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).