Sun, Dec 14, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 14 | 07 | 115 | 00 | 0 | 226 |
| CAR | 214 | 09 | 07 | 02 | 1 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:44CARWilliam CarrierAssists: Sean Walker, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 15:53CARTaylor HallPPAssists: Alexander Nikishin, Jackson Blake · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 19:07PHIJamie DrysdaleAssists: Trevor Zegras, Matvei Michkov · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 18:08PHITrevor ZegrasAssists: Travis Konecny, Christian Dvorak · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CAR Seth Jarvis stopped
- 2. PHI Trevor Zegras stopped
- 3. CAR Andrei Svechnikov scored
- 4. PHI Christian Dvorak stopped
- 5. CAR Jackson Blake stopped
- 6. PHI Matvei Michkov stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:19PHINoah Juulsen: Kneeing2 min
- P1 7:28CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:59CARLogan Stankoven: Holding2 min
- P1 15:00PHINikita Grebenkin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:32PHIGarnet Hathaway: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:12CARJackson Blake: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:12PHIEmil Andrae: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:25CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:38PHIJamie Drysdale: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:46CARSean Walker: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:51PHINoah Cates: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:42PHIBobby Brink: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jankowski won the faceoff against Abols
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Dvorak – Konecny – Zegras8:29
xG 0.56–0.52 (52%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Cates – Brink – Grebenkin4:26
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Couturier – Tippett – Michkov7:00
xG 0.05–0.32 (14%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Abols – Grundstrom6:12
xG 0.09–0.48 (16%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Drysdale7:39
xG 0.72–0.43 (63%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Juulsen – Andrae3:14
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Andrae – Drysdale7:49
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Jankowski – Robinson6:05
xG 0.39–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis9:01
xG 0.60–0.41 (59%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier8:32
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Ehlers – Stankoven – Blake8:33
xG 0.35–0.49 (42%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Chatfield10:02
xG 0.54–0.11 (83%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Walker – Miller11:28
xG 0.49–0.36 (57%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Walker – Nikishin3:07
xG 0.25–0.16 (60%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).