Sun, Dec 14, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Buffalo Sabres 3, Seattle Kraken 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 17 | 17 | 323 |
| SEA | 03 | 111 | 010 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:09BUFNoah OstlundAssists: Josh Norris, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 10:08BUFTage ThompsonGWGAssists: Peyton Krebs, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 12:24SEAChandler StephensonPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 19:14BUFZach BensonENAssists: Jack Quinn, Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.73 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:08SEAAdam Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:41BUFConor Timmins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:18BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:44SEARyker Evans: Interference2 min
- P2 15:53BUFJosh Doan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Krebs – Doan13:09
xG 0.88–0.20 (81%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Tuch – Norris – Ostlund10:01
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Greenway – Malenstyn – Kozak6:36
xG 0.03–0.48 (5%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- McLeod – Quinn – Benson10:30
xG 0.17–0.65 (21%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByram – Power3:20
xG 0.28–0.03 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Byram2:02
xG 0.24–0.04 (86%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin16:26
xG 0.98–0.90 (52%)attempts 18–19goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestWinterton – Wright – Meyers2:10
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Winterton – Nyman – Wright6:19
xG 0.37–0.07 (84%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Kartye – Melanson – Meyers5:18
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Eberle – Tolvanen – Beniers12:46
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Evans13:28
xG 1.39–0.31 (82%)attempts 21–11goals 0–1
- Montour – Lindgren14:27
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn14:37
xG 0.19–1.40 (12%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).