Mon, Dec 15, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 5, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 112 | 38 | 16 | 526 |
| STL | 16 | 06 | 110 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:27NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 10:06STLDalibor DvorskyAssists: Hugh McGing, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 1:23NSHMichael BuntingAssists: Nick Perbix, Erik Haula · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 5:31NSHFilip ForsbergPPGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 18:45NSHReid SchaeferAssists: Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–1
- P3 8:29STLDalibor DvorskyPPAssists: Jake Neighbours, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.25 xG4–2
- P3 16:09NSHFilip ForsbergENAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.65 xG5–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:57NSHJuuse Saros: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:48STLRobby Fabbri: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:07STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:07NSHNicolas Hague: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:30NSHMichael McCarron: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:30STLLogan Mailloux: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:30NSHMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:30STLLogan Mailloux: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:41STLAlexey Toropchenko: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:09STLDalibor Dvorsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 11:29STLLogan Mailloux: Holding2 min
- P3 7:44NSHBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:12NSHNicolas Hague: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Svechkov – Wood7:22
xG 0.66–0.14 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Haula – Marchessault – Bunting8:36
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- McCarron – Jost – Schaefer8:55
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista9:05
xG 0.19–0.35 (36%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Blankenburg12:39
xG 0.85–0.34 (71%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Skjei – Wilsby14:30
xG 0.33–0.18 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Josi – Perbix13:39
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Joseph – Thomas6:05
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Fabbri – Neighbours8:03
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 2–6goals 0–2
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours2:27
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Luff – Toropchenko9:07
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Broberg14:38
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
- Faulk – Tucker13:29
xG 0.18–0.14 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Fowler – Mailloux11:26
xG 0.31–0.94 (25%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).