Mon, Dec 15, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Los Angeles Kings 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 011 | 113 | 04 | 128 |
| DAL | 05 | 19 | 312 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:03LAKAndrei KuzmenkoPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.48 xG1–0
- P2 15:42DALMatt DucheneAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 6:12DALOskar BäckGWGAssists: Radek Faksa, Colin Blackwell · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 16:11DALMikko RantanenAssists: Thomas Harley · Snap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 19:28DALWyatt JohnstonENAssists: Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.68 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:54DALOskar Bäck: Interference2 min
- P2 6:29LAKMikey Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:24LAKBrandt Clarke: Interference2 min
- P2 9:24DALRadek Faksa: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 11:00DALOskar Bäck: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:57LAKJoel Armia: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Kuzmenko10:12
xG 0.78–0.54 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Armia – Foegele – Laferriere9:56
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Perry – Malott – Helenius7:50
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Fiala – Moore – Turcotte8:43
xG 0.49–0.59 (45%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Anderson2:17
xG 0.47–0.22 (69%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson14:06
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Dumoulin – Clarke2:27
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Rantanen – Johnston5:15
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 2–0
- Blackwell – Faksa – Bäck8:16
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Benn – Hintz – Robertson9:23
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Steel – Bourque – Hryckowian5:17
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLundkvist – Lyubushkin3:52
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen16:09
xG 0.65–0.59 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Harley7:59
xG 0.27–0.23 (55%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).