Tue, Dec 16, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Utah Mammoth 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 113 | 03 | 05 | 121 |
| BOS | 17 | 18 | 28 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:34UTABarrett HaytonPPAssists: Sean Durzi, Daniil But · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 16:01BOSMorgan GeekiePPAssists: David Pastrnak, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 0:23BOSMorgan GeekieGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 10:16BOSCasey MittelstadtAssists: Pavel Zacha, Marat Khusnutdinov · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 16:02BOSMichael EyssimontUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:48BOSPavel Zacha: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:49UTAJJ Peterka: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:06UTANate Schmidt: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:10BOSMichael Eyssimont: Holding2 min
- P2 14:38UTABarrett Hayton: Interference2 min
- P3 1:49BOSMason Lohrei: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:34UTANick Schmaltz: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:34UTALiam O'Brien: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:34UTASean Durzi: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:34BOSAlex Steeves: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestO'Brien – Stenlund – Yamamoto8:16
xG 0.53–0.08 (87%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Peterka13:12
xG 0.55–0.26 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Carcone – McBain – But9:17
xG 0.67–0.42 (61%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Crouse – Hayton – Guenther8:11
xG 0.02–0.45 (4%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Marino14:43
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Durzi15:34
xG 0.85–0.58 (59%)attempts 25–16goals 0–1
- Cole – Maatta8:46
xG 0.45–0.62 (42%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestZacha – Mittelstadt – Khusnutdinov10:21
xG 0.30–0.19 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Eyssimont – Steeves – Minten9:17
xG 0.36–0.44 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Geekie11:39
xG 0.51–0.77 (40%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Jeannot – Kastelic8:30
xG 0.06–0.38 (13%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – McAvoy15:25
xG 0.56–0.39 (59%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Peeke15:07
xG 0.20–0.49 (29%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Soderstrom – Lohrei11:53
xG 0.31–0.89 (26%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).