Tue, Dec 16, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Anaheim Ducks 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 010 | 29 | 18 | 00 | 327 |
| CBJ | 16 | 210 | 09 | 13 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:21CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Boone Jenner, Egor Chinakhov · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 3:35ANARyan StromeAssists: Ryan Poehling, Ian Moore · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 3:59CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Brendan Gaunce, Kent Johnson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 4:18CBJBoone JennerAssists: Ivan Provorov · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 5:29ANAMikael GranlundAssists: Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 16:44ANAJackson LaCombeAssists: Ryan Poehling, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 3:32CBJAdam FantilliGWGAssists: Kent Johnson, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:11CBJZach Werenski: Holding2 min
- P2 7:43CBJMiles Wood: Holding2 min
- P2 16:48CBJDante Fabbro: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:36CBJEgor Chinakhov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 4:24ANAAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P3 10:08ANAAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Johnston – Poehling7:50
xG 0.52–0.12 (81%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Granlund – Vatrano – Terry9:24
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Killorn – Gauthier – Carlsson9:04
xG 0.22–0.44 (33%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Kreider – McTavish – Sennecke8:05
xG 0.05–0.43 (9%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Trouba – LaCombe18:00
xG 0.70–0.74 (49%)attempts 17–24goals 0–0
- Moore – Zellweger12:35
xG 0.35–0.42 (45%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Gudas – Mintyukov9:49
xG 0.16–0.59 (22%)attempts 10–6goals 0–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Monahan – Chinakhov8:37
xG 0.49–0.16 (76%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Coyle – Wood – Sillinger9:16
xG 0.48–0.31 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli12:27
xG 0.45–0.36 (55%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Gaunce – Lundeström – Johnson7:28
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Mateychuk16:30
xG 0.81–0.44 (65%)attempts 17–16goals 2–2
- Severson – Provorov16:19
xG 0.73–0.51 (59%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
- Smith – Fabbro7:34
xG 0.03–0.36 (7%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).