Tue, Dec 16, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Colorado Avalanche 5, Seattle Kraken 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 18 | 115 | 316 | 539 |
| SEA | 011 | 313 | 014 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:19COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Martin Necas, Josh Manson · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 3:03SEAShane WrightAssists: Jani Nyman, Kaapo Kakko · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 5:48SEAJordan EberleAssists: Adam Larsson, Matty Beniers · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 13:29COLSamuel GirardAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 19:24SEAChandler StephensonPPAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 2:40COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Cale Makar, Martin Necas · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 8:25COLBrock NelsonPPGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 19:36COLNathan MacKinnonENAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Gabriel Landeskog · Backhand, 0.69 xG5–3
Penalties (17)
- P1 13:19COLSam Malinski: Holding2 min
- P1 15:34COLSam Malinski: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:07SEARyan Winterton: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:12SEAMason Marchment: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:17SEAVince Dunn: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:56COLRoss Colton: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:54COLJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:54COLJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:54SEAMason Marchment: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:54SEAMason Marchment: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:54SEABrandon Montour: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:54SEABrandon Montour: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:54COLBrent Burns: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:54COLBrent Burns: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:59COLJoel Kiviranta: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:49COLJosh Manson: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- P3 8:15SEAVince Dunn: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Drury – Kiviranta6:13
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas10:26
xG 0.75–0.73 (51%)attempts 15–16goals 2–0
- Nelson – Landeskog – Nichushkin10:04
xG 0.89–1.30 (41%)attempts 21–15goals 0–1
- Olofsson – Colton – Brindley7:34
xG 0.09–1.19 (7%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Manson9:57
xG 0.86–0.68 (56%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar12:53
xG 0.59–1.45 (29%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
- Girard – Malinski13:15
xG 0.31–1.38 (18%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestKakko – Nyman – Wright8:23
xG 1.48–0.34 (81%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Eberle – Marchment – Beniers11:41
xG 1.27–0.72 (64%)attempts 15–21goals 1–1
- Stephenson – Gaudreau – Tolvanen10:35
xG 0.57–0.48 (54%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Winterton – Melanson – Meyers2:51
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Evans10:28
xG 1.05–0.41 (72%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Montour – Lindgren7:52
xG 0.49–0.06 (89%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Lindgren – Evans2:34
xG 0.00–0.44 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).