Wed, Dec 17, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 0, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 09 | 09 | 024 |
| STL | 011 | 112 | 03 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:17STLJustin FaulkGWGAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:09WPGLogan Stanley: Holding2 min
- P1 18:45STLJustin Faulk: Interference2 min
- P2 1:19STLCam Fowler: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:00WPGJonathan Toews: Interference2 min
- P3 17:06WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:18WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:18WPGJosh Morrissey: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:18STLPius Suter: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:18WPGLogan Stanley: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Iafallo6:46
xG 0.32–0.05 (86%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Namestnikov – Perfetti9:17
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Lowry – Iafallo – Barron6:15
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Lowry – Vilardi – Barron2:17
xG 0.01–0.10 (10%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Stanley7:05
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk2:50
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Samberg2:02
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSuter – Berggren – Dvorsky8:49
xG 1.51–0.01 (99%)attempts 19–3goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Fabbri – Thomas7:05
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Schenn – Neighbours – Stenberg9:26
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Toropchenko4:46
xG 0.04–0.03 (57%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Mailloux10:59
xG 1.81–0.06 (97%)attempts 20–4goals 0–0
- Parayko – Broberg16:04
xG 0.50–0.47 (52%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
- Faulk – Kessel11:17
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).