Thu, Dec 18, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 14 | 06 | 05 | 115 |
| MTL | 17 | 016 | 312 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:27CHIFrank NazarAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Andre Burakovsky · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 14:23MTLZachary BolducAssists: Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 0:20MTLZachary BolducGWGAssists: Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 10:00MTLNoah DobsonAssists: Ivan Demidov, Lane Hutson · Backhand, 0.00 xG1–3
- P3 16:29MTLNick SuzukiENUnassisted · Snap, 0.35 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 4:49MTLNoah Dobson: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:12CHIDominic Toninato: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:12CHIFrank Nazar: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:21MTLArber Xhekaj: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – Bertuzzi – Nazar12:14
xG 0.74–0.54 (58%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Toninato – Donato – Dach7:39
xG 0.32–0.52 (38%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Greene – Lardis – Moore9:52
xG 0.20–0.54 (28%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Dickinson – Mikheyev11:24
xG 0.09–0.58 (14%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Levshunov14:45
xG 0.98–0.55 (64%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Crevier13:05
xG 0.19–0.53 (26%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Levshunov4:13
xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov10:20
xG 0.78–0.21 (79%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Bolduc11:31
xG 0.61–0.13 (83%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Gallagher – Veleno – Beck8:14
xG 0.58–0.20 (74%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Anderson – Evans – Texier10:19
xG 0.31–0.54 (36%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Hutson14:26
xG 0.65–0.06 (92%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Xhekaj – Engstrom9:36
xG 0.77–0.45 (63%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Dobson – Engstrom4:55
xG 0.16–0.01 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).