Thu, Dec 18, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Minnesota Wild 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 09 | 28 | 311 | 528 |
| CBJ | 15 | 114 | 010 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:20CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Charlie Coyle, Cole Sillinger · Slap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 13:30MINRyan HartmanPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Brock Faber · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 16:15MINVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Yakov Trenin, Danila Yurov · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 17:39CBJZach WerenskiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 11:50MINJoel Eriksson EkGWGAssists: Yakov Trenin, Matt Boldy · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 18:08MINKirill KaprizovENAssists: Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.57 xG4–2
- P3 18:46MINMatt BoldyENAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Backhand, 0.81 xG5–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:14MINNicolas Aube-Kubel: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:53CBJZachary Aston-Reese: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:04MINTyler Pitlick: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Trenin – Yurov10:52
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Aube-Kubel7:33
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Kaprizov – Yurov2:29
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Kaprizov2:29
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLambos – Jiricek7:33
xG 0.43–0.15 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Hughes – Faber27:21
xG 1.08–1.04 (51%)attempts 28–25goals 1–2
- Spurgeon – Kiersted13:58
xG 0.65–0.76 (46%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli11:25
xG 0.68–0.21 (76%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Jenner – Monahan – Chinakhov12:47
xG 0.42–0.43 (49%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Coyle – Wood – Sillinger13:41
xG 0.53–0.56 (49%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Aston-Reese – Lundeström – Johnson6:10
xG 0.06–0.36 (15%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Mateychuk19:56
xG 0.96–0.30 (76%)attempts 26–13goals 0–0
- Werenski – Provorov2:18
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Smith – Severson3:33
xG 0.01–0.01 (38%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).