Thu, Dec 18, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
New York Rangers 2, St. Louis Blues 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 115 | 05 | 11 | 231 |
| STL | 15 | 010 | 011 | 01 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:58STLJonatan BerggrenAssists: Dalibor Dvorsky · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 6:02NYRGabe PerreaultPPAssists: Will Cuylle, Noah Laba · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
- OT 2:21NYRJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P2 1:43STLJake Neighbours: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:43NYRGabe Perreault: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:43NYRWill Borgen: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:07STLJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:22STLPavel Buchnevich: Interference2 min
- P2 14:24NYRBrennan Othmann: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:57NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Rempe – Othmann6:14
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Miller – Sheary12:28
xG 1.09–0.77 (59%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
- Zibanejad – Lafrenière – Cuylle12:09
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Laba – Perreault7:56
xG 0.07–0.23 (23%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobertson – Morrow12:18
xG 0.63–0.06 (91%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Schneider19:05
xG 0.72–0.84 (46%)attempts 11–22goals 0–1
- Soucy – Borgen12:29
xG 0.25–0.78 (24%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Berggren5:53
xG 0.90–0.01 (99%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Berggren – Dvorsky5:01
xG 0.04–0.06 (40%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Luff3:42
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Joseph – Suter – Dvorsky3:49
xG 0.00–0.11 (4%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Fowler5:07
xG 0.64–0.21 (76%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Fowler – Mailloux10:40
xG 0.52–0.17 (76%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Parayko – Broberg14:34
xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).