Fri, Dec 19, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
Dallas Stars 8, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 47 | 38 | 110 | 825 |
| ANA | 18 | 09 | 28 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37DALOskar BäckSHAssists: Radek Faksa · Snap, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 3:32ANARyan PoehlingAssists: Radko Gudas, Ross Johnston · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 4:42DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson, Mavrik Bourque · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 12:41DALSam SteelAssists: Jamie Benn, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P1 14:19DALThomas HarleyGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.11 xG4–1
- P2 11:10DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.23 xG5–1
- P2 15:10DALJason RobertsonAssists: Roope Hintz · Backhand, 0.09 xG6–1
- P2 18:30DALAdam ErneAssists: Radek Faksa, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.18 xG7–1
- P3 1:01ANABeckett SenneckeAssists: Mason McTavish, Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.05 xG7–2
- P3 1:42DALIlya LyubushkinAssists: Justin Hryckowian, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.03 xG8–2
- P3 14:22ANAMikael GranlundAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Troy Terry · Snap, 0.26 xG8–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:11DALJason Robertson: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:15DALJason Robertson: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:44ANAMikael Granlund: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:34DALAlexander Petrovic: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:01DALJason Robertson: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:01ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:01ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:01ANAFrank Vatrano: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:01ANAFrank Vatrano: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Erne – Bäck9:02
xG 0.72–0.43 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Benn – Steel – Hryckowian9:20
xG 0.30–0.24 (55%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Hintz – Robertson – Bourque11:36
xG 0.76–0.87 (46%)attempts 10–17goals 2–1
- Duchene – Rantanen – Johnston10:59
xG 0.07–0.56 (12%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen7:42
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Lundkvist – Harley11:24
xG 0.67–0.42 (62%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Petrovic – Harley2:58
xG 0.42–0.30 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Vatrano – Terry6:05
xG 0.41–0.12 (77%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Strome – Johnston – Poehling7:46
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–2
- Killorn – Gauthier – Carlsson9:55
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Kreider – McTavish – Sennecke9:52
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 18–9goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – LaCombe11:20
xG 0.71–0.35 (67%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Gudas – Mintyukov16:37
xG 1.15–0.91 (56%)attempts 24–12goals 1–1
- Gudas – Moore2:18
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).