Sat, Dec 20, 2025·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Edmonton Oilers 2, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 214 | 06 | 010 | 230 |
| MIN | 316 | 010 | 211 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:42MINMatt BoldyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 10:56MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 13:35EDMAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Evan Bouchard, Leon Draisaitl · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 18:44EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P1 19:52MINRyan HartmanGWGAssists: Jake Middleton, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 9:08MINVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Yakov Trenin · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–4
- P3 18:35MINNico SturmENAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.80 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:53EDMLeon Draisaitl: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:53EDMLeon Draisaitl: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:10MINJake Middleton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:06MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid11:19
xG 0.82–0.63 (57%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Draisaitl – Podkolzin – Hutson3:26
xG 0.03–0.04 (39%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Janmark – Frederic – Jones3:41
xG 0.01–0.09 (13%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Henrique – Mangiapane – Savoie5:38
xG 0.09–0.22 (29%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ekholm – Bouchard17:42
xG 1.19–1.19 (50%)attempts 21–16goals 0–2
- Nurse – Stastney17:23
xG 0.56–0.76 (43%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Stillman – Emberson11:33
xG 0.05–0.80 (6%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Hinostroza – Sturm6:26
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Trenin – Yurov9:09
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov8:49
xG 0.48–0.42 (53%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy2:58
xG 0.11–0.11 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHughes – Faber19:15
xG 1.46–0.64 (69%)attempts 22–17goals 1–0
- Middleton – Jiricek10:59
xG 0.84–0.31 (73%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin12:48
xG 0.43–0.66 (40%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).