Sun, Dec 21, 2025·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 5, Minnesota Wild 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 114 | 219 | 29 | 542 |
| MIN | 07 | 013 | 19 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:28COLMartin NecasAssists: Cale Makar, Gabriel Landeskog · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 13:37COLNathan MacKinnonPPGWGAssists: Brock Nelson, Cale Makar · Slap, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 18:33COLCale MakarPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Gabriel Landeskog · Snap, 0.06 xG3–0
- P3 5:15MINRyan HartmanAssists: Jonas Brodin, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 15:52COLBrock NelsonAssists: Samuel Girard, Valeri Nichushkin · Slap, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 17:35COLNathan MacKinnonENAssists: Devon Toews, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.82 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:56COLJosh Manson: Interference2 min
- P1 9:03MINKirill Kaprizov: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:03COLJack Drury: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:47MINVladimir Tarasenko: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:07MINMarcus Foligno: Interference2 min
- P2 15:07MINMarcus Foligno: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:30COLGabriel Landeskog: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Colton – Brindley7:00
xG 0.46–0.23 (66%)attempts 19–3goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Necas12:50
xG 0.54–0.49 (53%)attempts 13–22goals 1–0
- Nelson – Lehkonen – Nichushkin9:18
xG 0.24–0.34 (42%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Kelly – Drury – Kiviranta7:29
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar13:56
xG 0.69–0.40 (63%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Burns – Manson12:46
xG 0.67–0.64 (51%)attempts 24–15goals 0–0
- Burns – Malinski2:19
xG 0.01–0.05 (22%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov10:33
xG 0.67–0.06 (91%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy2:33
xG 0.15–0.08 (67%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hinostroza – Sturm5:55
xG 0.12–0.10 (53%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy7:56
xG 0.21–0.49 (30%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Hughes2:43
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Hughes4:16
xG 0.17–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Middleton – Jiricek6:55
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).