Sun, Dec 21, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 3, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 212 | 14 | 325 |
| NJD | 112 | 06 | 09 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:51NJDJack HughesAssists: Dawson Mercer, Colton White · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 2:26BUFJosh NorrisAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 16:05BUFZach BensonGWGAssists: Ryan McLeod, Jack Quinn · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 17:59BUFPeyton KrebsENAssists: Tage Thompson, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.80 xG3–1
Penalties (1)
- P1 19:48BUFZach Benson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).