Sun, Dec 21, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New York Rangers 1, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 06 | 04 | 17 | 117 |
| NSH | 015 | 111 | 16 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:44NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Adam Wilsby · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 19:12NSHSteven StamkosENGWGAssists: Cole Smith, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–2
- P3 19:23NYRJonny BrodzinskiAssists: Taylor Raddysh · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:11NYRWill Borgen: Interference2 min
- P2 14:47NSHCole Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:08NYRArtemi Panarin: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:53NSHMichael McCarron: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:01NSHFilip Forsberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Raddysh – Cuylle6:25
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Carrick – Trocheck – Brodzinski2:12
xG 0.14–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Sheary – Othmann – Laba4:06
xG 0.04–0.18 (17%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Sheary – Cuylle4:22
xG 0.14–0.30 (31%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Borgen9:34
xG 0.50–0.19 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Robertson – Morrow6:20
xG 0.44–0.30 (60%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Soucy – Morrow2:20
xG 0.09–0.11 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – O'Reilly – Forsberg13:14
xG 0.89–0.14 (86%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Haula – Bunting – Evangelista10:26
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Jost – Svechkov – Wood8:51
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- McCarron – Smith – Schaefer8:25
xG 0.05–0.12 (30%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Blankenburg13:08
xG 1.02–0.25 (80%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Josi – Perbix13:58
xG 0.61–0.52 (54%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Skjei – Wilsby14:44
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).