Sun, Dec 21, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Edmonton Oilers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 08 | 110 | 213 | 331 |
| EDM | 212 | 26 | 03 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:11EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Alec Regula · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 14:37EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 2:22EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman · Snap, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 7:45EDMZach HymanGWGAssists: Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 12:59VGKTomas HertlPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Noah Hanifin · Snap, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 3:52VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Tomas Hertl, Noah Hanifin · Snap, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 5:49VGKMitch MarnerAssists: Tomas Hertl, Noah Hanifin · Snap, 0.29 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:47EDMAndrew Mangiapane: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:57EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:58VGKBen Hutton: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:26EDMAndrew Mangiapane: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:56VGKJeremy Lauzon: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:06EDMAdam Henrique: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:31EDMAlec Regula: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:32VGKBrett Howden: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Hertl – Dorofeyev8:48
xG 0.55–0.28 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Howden – Bowman10:20
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Sissons – Kolesar – Reinhardt6:19
xG 0.17–0.43 (28%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Stone – Barbashev – Marner10:57
xG 0.37–0.64 (37%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Hanifin12:40
xG 1.08–0.60 (64%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- McNabb – Korczak12:27
xG 0.62–0.19 (77%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Hutton – Korczak2:30
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid2:49
xG 0.44–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – Roslovic – Podkolzin10:28
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Janmark – Lazar – Jones6:15
xG 0.15–0.14 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Henrique – Mangiapane – Savoie7:02
xG 0.07–0.20 (26%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard13:46
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Nurse2:26
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Nurse – Regula13:49
xG 1.00–1.17 (46%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).