Mon, Dec 22, 2025·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Vancouver Canucks 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 05 | 012 | 28 | 225 |
| PHI | 014 | 114 | 411 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:13PHINikita GrebenkinAssists: Emil Andrae, Rodrigo Abols · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 5:58PHICarl GrundstromAssists: Nikita Grebenkin, Rodrigo Abols · Snap, 0.24 xG0–2
- P3 7:49PHIChristian DvorakGWGAssists: Trevor Zegras, Travis Konecny · Bat, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 13:05VANMax SassonAssists: Conor Garland, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–3
- P3 15:35PHIOwen TippettAssists: Cam York · Snap, 0.23 xG1–4
- P3 18:49PHIMatvei MichkovENAssists: Noah Cates · Wrist, 0.53 xG1–5
- P3 19:42VANDrew O'ConnorAssists: Zeev Buium, Elias Pettersson · Snap, 0.16 xG2–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 10:52PHIChristian Dvorak: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 13:51VANTyler Myers: Holding2 min
- P1 19:11PHIDenver Barkey: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Kampf – Sherwood – O'Connor3:42
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Garland – Ohgren – Sasson3:19
xG 0.57–0.71 (44%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Ohgren – Sasson4:43
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–1
- DeBrusk – Garland – Kampf4:58
xG 0.01–0.25 (2%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Buium7:58
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Pettersson – Willander6:49
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Myers – Pettersson9:26
xG 0.64–0.84 (43%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Tippett – Barkey11:10
xG 1.58–0.16 (91%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Cates – Brink – Michkov10:05
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Zegras11:41
xG 0.65–0.29 (69%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Abols – Grundstrom – Grebenkin9:50
xG 0.84–0.81 (51%)attempts 8–13goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Ristolainen14:20
xG 1.29–0.49 (73%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York17:40
xG 1.26–0.58 (69%)attempts 20–21goals 1–0
- Andrae – Drysdale17:12
xG 0.98–0.67 (59%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).