Tue, Dec 23, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Rangers 7, Washington Capitals 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 15 | 15 | 511 | 721 |
| WSH | 06 | 315 | 011 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:57NYRTaylor RaddyshAssists: Jonny Brodzinski, Braden Schneider · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 0:23WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Ryan Leonard · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 8:40WSHDylan StromePPAssists: Connor McMichael, Ryan Leonard · Snap, 0.88 xG1–2
- P2 11:14NYRWill CuyllePPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Vincent Trocheck · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 12:11WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Sonny Milano, Hendrix Lapierre · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 8:10NYRTaylor RaddyshAssists: Will Cuylle, Noah Laba · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 9:18NYRAlexis LafrenièreGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Scott Morrow · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 13:43NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Jonny Brodzinski, Gabe Perreault · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 17:44NYRArtemi PanarinENAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Alexis Lafrenière · Snap, 0.72 xG6–3
- P3 18:09NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Will Cuylle, Taylor Raddysh · Backhand, 0.12 xG7–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:49WSHRyan Leonard: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 3:57NYRMatthew Robertson: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:29NYRCarson Soucy: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:54WSHConnor McMichael: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:23WSHAlex Ovechkin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:31NYRNoah Laba: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Panarin – Lafrenière13:28
xG 0.89–0.47 (65%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Trocheck – Brodzinski – Perreault4:51
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Carrick – Rempe – Othmann5:45
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Trocheck – Cuylle – Perreault5:34
xG 0.03–0.05 (41%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobertson – Morrow12:12
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Soucy – Borgen13:58
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Schneider14:17
xG 0.57–0.72 (44%)attempts 7–23goals 2–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Milano – Duhaime – Lapierre5:20
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Dowd – Beauvillier – Frank10:24
xG 0.26–0.31 (46%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – McMichael – Sourdif11:28
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Strome – Protas – Leonard12:34
xG 0.55–0.81 (40%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Chychrun12:50
xG 0.40–0.02 (95%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Roy – Fehérváry3:56
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Carlson – Chychrun3:12
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).