Tue, Dec 23, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
Utah Mammoth 0, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 09 | 011 | 012 | 032 |
| COL | 012 | 110 | 04 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:57COLSamuel GirardGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:04UTAJJ Peterka: Interference2 min
- P1 16:36COLArtturi Lehkonen: Holding2 min
- P2 4:37COLDevon Toews: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:41COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:39UTADylan Guenther: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestCarcone – McBain – But7:20
xG 0.59–0.19 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Peterka11:40
xG 0.56–0.51 (52%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Crouse – Hayton – Guenther10:37
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – O'Brien – Stenlund4:06
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Marino15:17
xG 1.04–0.55 (65%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Cole – DeSimone8:26
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Cole – Marino2:19
xG 0.03–0.16 (17%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Lehkonen – Nichushkin5:16
xG 0.50–0.02 (97%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Colton – Brindley7:00
xG 0.47–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Nichushkin7:04
xG 0.45–0.12 (78%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Nelson – Lehkonen – Necas4:34
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Manson14:11
xG 1.43–0.52 (73%)attempts 21–17goals 0–0
- Girard – Malinski13:43
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar14:21
xG 0.22–0.70 (24%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).