Tue, Dec 23, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 1, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 08 | 03 | 119 |
| EDM | 215 | 215 | 19 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:48EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 15:58CGYMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 19:43EDMLeon DraisaitlPPGWGAssists: Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 1:59EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 11:56EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 5:38EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–5
Penalties (26)
- P1 17:10EDMVasily Podkolzin: Holding2 min
- P1 18:14CGYRasmus Andersson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:08CGYMatt Coronato: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:45EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:45CGYConnor Zary: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:48CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:48CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Misconduct10 min
- P2 5:48CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 8:22EDMTrent Frederic: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:22CGYKevin Bahl: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:30EDMConnor McDavid: Holding2 min
- P3 5:15CGYJoel Hanley: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:54EDMAlec Regula: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:28CGYRasmus Andersson: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:12EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:53CGYRyan Lomberg: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:53EDMMatt Savoie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:53EDMAndrew Mangiapane: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:53CGYYan Kuznetsov: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:53CGYAdam Klapka: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:53EDMAlec Regula: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:53CGYRyan Lomberg: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:53EDMVasily Podkolzin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:53CGYJohn Beecher: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:53CGYJoel Hanley: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:53EDMDarnell Nurse: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary8:52
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Coronato3:22
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Frost – Farabee – Sharangovich2:31
xG 0.04–0.16 (21%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Lomberg – Beecher – Klapka6:08
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kuznetsov6:32
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Hanley – Andersson2:19
xG 0.07–0.11 (41%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Andersson – Bahl9:59
xG 0.28–0.36 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJanmark – Frederic – Jones7:14
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid8:24
xG 0.68–0.43 (61%)attempts 12–7goals 2–1
- Draisaitl – Roslovic – Podkolzin8:13
xG 0.37–0.20 (66%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Henrique – Mangiapane – Savoie8:40
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Regula12:12
xG 0.89–0.17 (84%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Emberson – Stastney13:41
xG 0.59–0.08 (88%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard11:59
xG 0.62–0.45 (58%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).