Tue, Dec 23, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
San Jose Sharks 2, Vegas Golden Knights 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 05 | 14 | 114 | 223 |
| VGK | 517 | 15 | 14 | 726 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:46VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Braeden Bowman, Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 9:07VGKMitch MarnerPPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Pavel Dorofeyev · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 11:37VGKColton SissonsGWGAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P1 14:57VGKTomas HertlAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev · Snap, 0.23 xG0–4
- P1 18:34VGKMark StoneAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Kaedan Korczak · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–5
- P2 6:49SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.08 xG1–5
- P2 18:50VGKReilly SmithAssists: Kaedan Korczak, Braeden Bowman · Slap, 0.08 xG1–6
- P3 5:22VGKMitch MarnerAssists: Mark Stone, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–7
- P3 8:04SJSCollin GrafAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:58SJSShakir Mukhamadullin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:13VGKZach Whitecloud: Interference2 min
- P1 12:23SJSWilliam Eklund: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:02SJSWilliam Eklund: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:44SJSMario Ferraro: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00VGKBen Hutton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestEklund – Celebrini – Chernyshov5:49
xG 0.80–0.21 (79%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Graf3:40
xG 0.09–0.04 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Celebrini – Graf – Chernyshov9:12
xG 0.06–0.20 (24%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Ostapchuk9:26
xG 0.08–0.35 (18%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Orlov – Klingberg15:43
xG 0.60–0.65 (48%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin15:02
xG 0.60–0.76 (44%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
- Leddy – Dickinson13:54
xG 0.37–1.26 (23%)attempts 6–13goals 1–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Barbashev – Marner9:00
xG 0.84–0.01 (99%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Saad – Sissons – Kolesar9:49
xG 0.59–0.11 (84%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Smith – Howden – Bowman9:28
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Hertl – Dorofeyev – Holtz11:33
xG 0.74–0.67 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Korczak14:59
xG 0.90–0.15 (86%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1
- Lauzon – Whitecloud14:04
xG 0.93–0.56 (62%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Hutton – Hanifin14:28
xG 0.68–0.98 (41%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).