Sat, Dec 27, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Detroit Red Wings 2, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 15 | 04 | 111 | 220 |
| CAR | 015 | 317 | 26 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:39DETMichael RasmussenAssists: J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 3:22CARJackson BlakeAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 4:37CAREric RobinsonAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 15:22CARShayne GostisbehereGWGAssists: Jalen Chatfield, William Carrier · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 3:11DETAndrew CoppPPAssists: John Leonard, Axel Sandin-Pellikka · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 13:09CARAndrei SvechnikovUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 18:39CARJordan MartinookENAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P2 8:03DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:03CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:34CARJalen Chatfield: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:12DETMason Appleton: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:11CARNikolaj Ehlers: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kotkaniemi won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Raymond – Kasper2:21
xG 0.21–0.06 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Copp – DeBrincat – Kasper2:37
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Copp – DeBrincat – Leonard6:02
xG 0.22–0.50 (31%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Leonard – Soderblom – Danielson3:19
xG 0.02–0.43 (5%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson11:57
xG 0.67–1.22 (35%)attempts 8–21goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka11:53
xG 0.15–0.88 (15%)attempts 7–12goals 0–2
- Seider – Edvinsson18:39
xG 0.44–1.95 (18%)attempts 11–29goals 1–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Jankowski – Robinson10:37
xG 1.62–0.25 (87%)attempts 24–7goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Kotkaniemi – Blake11:11
xG 1.02–0.40 (72%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier9:42
xG 0.72–0.38 (65%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Stankoven11:13
xG 0.53–0.22 (70%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Nystrom13:22
xG 1.90–0.47 (80%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield14:18
xG 0.97–0.21 (82%)attempts 15–7goals 3–0
- Walker – Nikishin19:10
xG 1.32–0.68 (66%)attempts 31–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).