Sun, Dec 28, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Islanders 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 111 | 06 | 226 |
| CBJ | 115 | 06 | 314 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:09CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Mason Marchment, Denton Mateychuk · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 17:16NYIMaxim ShabanovAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 13:24NYIBo HorvatAssists: Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 15:27CBJIvan ProvorovAssists: Denton Mateychuk, Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 16:41CBJKirill MarchenkoGWGAssists: Adam Fantilli, Damon Severson · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 18:54CBJCole SillingerENAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:12NYIMathew Barzal: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:11CBJMason Marchment: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:37CBJMason Marchment: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:37NYIMathew Barzal: Slashing5 min
- P2 1:37NYIMathew Barzal: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 1:43NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:31CBJMason Marchment: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:44CBJKent Johnson: Interference2 min
- P3 4:47NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Duclair – Shabanov3:22
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Lee – Barzal – Holmstrom4:21
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Pageau – Duclair2:00
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Drouin – Horvat – Heineman5:15
xG 0.11–0.34 (25%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Mayfield – Warren9:08
xG 0.08–0.21 (29%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Pelech – DeAngelo12:07
xG 0.61–0.91 (40%)attempts 18–17goals 0–2
- Pulock – Schaefer14:01
xG 0.61–1.51 (29%)attempts 17–24goals 2–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchment – Marchenko – Fantilli12:56
xG 1.23–0.39 (76%)attempts 21–5goals 2–0
- Coyle – Jenner – Olivier10:46
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Wood – Monahan – Voronkov3:19
xG 0.17–0.02 (91%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Gaunce – Wood – Sillinger4:13
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Mateychuk12:24
xG 1.57–0.70 (69%)attempts 17–17goals 1–1
- Severson – Provorov6:13
xG 0.79–0.06 (93%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Provorov – Fabbro12:27
xG 0.55–0.43 (56%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).