Sun, Dec 28, 2025·United Center, Chicago
Pittsburgh Penguins 7, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 410 | 312 | 02 | 724 |
| CHI | 07 | 28 | 19 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Jack St. Ivany, Ryan Shea · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 7:19PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 8:20PITJustin BrazeauAssists: Anthony Mantha, Tommy Novak · Snap, 0.33 xG3–0
- P1 12:03PITBryan RustGWGAssists: Ryan Shea, Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–0
- P2 10:50CHINick FolignoAssists: Colton Dach, Sam Lafferty · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–1
- P2 12:20PITJustin BrazeauPPAssists: Ben Kindel, Ville Koivunen · Backhand, 0.19 xG5–1
- P2 13:17PITJustin BrazeauAssists: Connor Dewar, Ryan Shea · Tip-in, 0.07 xG6–1
- P2 13:30CHIWyatt KaiserAssists: Ryan Greene, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.01 xG6–2
- P2 18:48PITNoel AcciariAssists: Jack St. Ivany, Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.20 xG7–2
- P3 19:59CHITyler BertuzziAssists: Jason Dickinson · Wrist, 0.07 xG7–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:56PITBryan Rust: Holding2 min
- P1 13:45PITKris Letang: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:16PITNoel Acciari: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:16CHIConnor Murphy: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:54CHINick Lardis: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:12CHISam Lafferty: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 6:45PITJack St. Ivany: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lizotte won the faceoff against Lafferty
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKoivunen – McGroarty – Kindel9:10
xG 0.63–0.24 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Mantha – Novak – Brazeau9:10
xG 0.61–0.50 (55%)attempts 7–13goals 2–2
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte8:27
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell13:37
xG 0.23–0.80 (22%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestShea – St. Ivany13:03
xG 1.00–0.59 (63%)attempts 13–15goals 3–0
- Kulak – St. Ivany2:37
xG 0.22–0.16 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Wotherspoon – St. Ivany2:40
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDickinson – Bertuzzi – Slaggert10:39
xG 0.74–0.27 (73%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Greene – Lardis – Moore10:44
xG 0.58–0.28 (67%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Foligno – Lafferty – Dach8:51
xG 0.32–0.27 (55%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Foligno – Dickinson – Slaggert2:14
xG 0.04–0.12 (28%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Crevier14:07
xG 0.96–0.20 (82%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Murphy – Kaiser9:41
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 2–1
- Vlasic – Levshunov2:15
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).