Mon, Dec 29, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 112 | 13 | 27 | 422 |
| OTT | 07 | 110 | 011 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:58CBJBoone JennerAssists: Cole Sillinger, Charlie Coyle · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 1:21CBJDamon SeversonGWGAssists: Dmitri Voronkov, Cole Sillinger · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 8:16OTTJake SandersonAssists: Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 1:57CBJDenton MateychukAssists: Damon Severson, Charlie Coyle · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 15:54CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Mason Marchment, Adam Fantilli · Snap, 0.12 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:03CBJCole Sillinger: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:26OTTFabian Zetterlund: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:01OTTKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:01CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:52OTTDylan Cozens: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:24CBJDante Fabbro: Holding2 min
- P2 10:47CBJDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:56OTTDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:27CBJMason Marchment: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fantilli won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Jenner – Olivier7:26
xG 0.24–0.08 (74%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Gaunce – Aston-Reese – Johnson6:50
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Wood – Voronkov – Sillinger8:12
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Marchment – Marchenko – Fantilli10:48
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Mateychuk2:07
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Severson – Mateychuk12:45
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 7–16goals 2–1
- Provorov – Fabbro12:23
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestZetterlund – Tkachuk – Stützle2:52
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto3:49
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Cozens4:02
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Pinto3:28
xG 0.04–0.13 (25%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Spence14:15
xG 0.54–0.42 (56%)attempts 17–10goals 0–3
- Sanderson – Zub11:24
xG 0.34–0.38 (48%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Kleven – Matinpalo10:21
xG 0.10–0.27 (28%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).