Mon, Dec 29, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
New York Rangers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 15 | 19 | 06 | 00 | 220 |
| CAR | 113 | 07 | 111 | 14 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:39NYRVladislav GavrikovPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 15:57CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Alexander Nikishin, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 13:00NYRJonny BrodzinskiAssists: Sam Carrick, Matthew Robertson · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 9:11CARJordan MartinookAssists: Jalen Chatfield, K'Andre Miller · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 4:47CARJackson BlakePPGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Nikolaj Ehlers · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:09CARAlexander Nikishin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:53NYRJonny Brodzinski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:13NYRBraden Schneider: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:46CARLogan Stankoven: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:54NYRWill Borgen: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:01NYRMatthew Robertson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSheary – Raddysh – Laba9:05
xG 0.30–0.07 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Carrick – Brodzinski – Rempe6:01
xG 0.23–0.29 (45%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Cuylle – Perreault12:09
xG 0.33–0.74 (31%)attempts 11–22goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Panarin – Lafrenière13:14
xG 0.71–1.14 (38%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Borgen – Gavrikov2:41
xG 0.02–0.04 (34%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Borgen – Robertson12:25
xG 0.41–0.44 (48%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Schneider15:42
xG 0.88–0.95 (48%)attempts 15–23goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Svechnikov – Stankoven8:23
xG 0.67–0.09 (88%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Aho – Robinson – Svechnikov6:48
xG 0.40–0.11 (79%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Kotkaniemi – Blake9:45
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Hall – Jankowski – Robinson5:30
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Nikishin15:41
xG 1.10–0.45 (71%)attempts 24–9goals 0–0
- Reilly – Nystrom13:45
xG 0.81–0.25 (77%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Chatfield – Miller14:11
xG 0.59–0.44 (57%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).