Mon, Dec 29, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Edmonton Oilers 3, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 24 | 18 | 321 |
| WPG | 015 | 011 | 116 | 142 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:00EDMMax JonesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 12:49EDMJack RoslovicPPGWGAssists: Adam Henrique, Matt Savoie · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 5:46WPGAdam LowryAssists: Morgan Barron · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 18:37EDMZach HymanENAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.54 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:18EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:18EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:18WPGNeal Pionk: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:28EDMLeon Draisaitl: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:35EDMEvan Bouchard: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:13WPGDylan Samberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Lazar – Jones5:52
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 3–8goals 1–1
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid11:30
xG 0.81–0.63 (56%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid2:16
xG 0.18–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Janmark – Roslovic – Frederic4:35
xG 0.01–0.01 (38%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard18:23
xG 0.99–0.93 (51%)attempts 16–22goals 0–0
- Stillman – Emberson10:02
xG 0.49–0.67 (42%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Nurse – Stastney14:46
xG 0.17–0.90 (16%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi16:01
xG 0.97–0.48 (67%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Lowry – Pearson – Barron9:21
xG 0.59–0.14 (81%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Toews – Nyquist – Niederreiter5:35
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Toews – Iafallo – Perfetti3:23
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk12:19
xG 1.13–0.54 (67%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey15:54
xG 0.76–0.27 (74%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Schenn – Stanley9:45
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).