Mon, Dec 29, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
Los Angeles Kings 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 010 | 15 | 110 | 225 |
| COL | 18 | 210 | 28 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:24COLJack DruryAssists: Ross Colton · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 5:15LAKCorey PerryPPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Joel Edmundson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 13:21COLMartin NecasAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 17:30COLBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Joel Kiviranta, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 4:58LAKJoel ArmiaSHAssists: Adrian Kempe · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 18:23COLNathan MacKinnonENAssists: Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–4
- P3 19:15COLCale MakarAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.07 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:43LAKAndrei Kuzmenko: Interference2 min
- P2 3:18COLParker Kelly: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:54LAKBrian Dumoulin: Interference2 min
- P2 9:58COLRoss Colton: Interference2 min
- P2 14:10LAKBrandt Clarke: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:44LAKBrandt Clarke: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:00COLJack Drury: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Byfield
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Turcotte – Kuzmenko7:11
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Laferriere7:21
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Perry – Armia – Helenius2:57
xG 0.02–0.04 (35%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Fiala – Kempe2:11
xG 0.04–0.11 (26%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Doughty – Dumoulin2:57
xG 0.06–0.12 (33%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Clarke11:51
xG 0.22–0.33 (39%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
- Dumoulin – Ceci11:31
xG 0.59–0.76 (44%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Necas12:10
xG 0.89–0.31 (74%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Kelly – Kiviranta – Brindley4:55
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Colton – Drury6:46
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Nelson – Lehkonen – Nichushkin10:18
xG 0.19–0.45 (30%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar13:07
xG 0.89–0.39 (69%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Girard – Malinski12:18
xG 0.33–0.25 (58%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Burns – Manson13:43
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).