Mon, Dec 29, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Vancouver Canucks 3, Seattle Kraken 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 112 | 19 | 03 | 00 | 1 | 324 |
| SEA | 214 | 06 | 016 | 03 | 0 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:50SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 15:20VANLinus KarlssonAssists: Liam Ohgren · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 19:40SEARyan WintertonAssists: Jacob Melanson, Joey Daccord · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 5:23VANElias PetterssonAssists: Evander Kane, Tom Willander · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. SEA Frederick Gaudreau stopped
- 2. VAN Conor Garland stopped
- 3. SEA Eeli Tolvanen stopped
- 4. SEA Jordan Eberle stopped
- 5. VAN Liam Ohgren scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:42VANTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:41SEAShane Wright: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:51VANLinus Karlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:46VANNils Hoglander: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:17VANConor Garland: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:17SEAJared McCann: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:38VANElias Pettersson: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:01SEAEeli Tolvanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:27VANElias Pettersson: Slashing2 min
- OT 3:20VANEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Rossi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Rossi – Ohgren2:35
xG 0.19–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Garland – Rossi – Ohgren8:46
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Hoglander – Sasson5:59
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Sherwood – O'Connor – Räty7:37
xG 0.05–0.23 (18%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Hronek14:25
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Myers – Buium2:14
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Willander – Buium8:18
xG 0.21–0.21 (51%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestWinterton – Melanson – Meyers5:59
xG 0.63–0.09 (87%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Stephenson – Gaudreau – Tolvanen13:33
xG 0.65–0.41 (61%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Eberle – Kakko – Beniers10:34
xG 0.37–0.33 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- McCann – Wright – Catton6:57
xG 0.16–0.54 (23%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindgren – Fleury15:26
xG 0.92–0.54 (63%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Larsson – Dunn16:28
xG 0.75–0.40 (65%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Evans11:40
xG 0.20–0.57 (26%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).