Tue, Dec 30, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 09 | 014 | 010 | 033 |
| TOR | 114 | 18 | 28 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:21TORBobby McMannPPGWGAssists: Nick Robertson · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 14:24TORNicolas RoyAssists: Bobby McMann, Nick Robertson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 6:35TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Steven Lorentz · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 17:01TORMatthew KniesENAssists: John Tavares, Nicolas Roy · Wrist, 0.77 xG0–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:26NJDCody Glass: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:40NJDStefan Noesen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:29TORJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:23NJDArseny Gritsyuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:13TORSimon Benoit: Holding2 min
- P3 6:22NJDNico Hischier: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:22TORMatthew Knies: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:19TORMatthew Knies: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – Hischier – Mercer7:22
xG 0.69–0.16 (82%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes6:04
xG 0.56–0.15 (79%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Noesen – Glendening – Cotter6:13
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Glass – Hughes – Gritsyuk2:01
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hughes15:19
xG 0.93–0.37 (72%)attempts 23–7goals 0–0
- Dillon – White11:41
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler11:04
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Robertson – Cowan10:40
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Laughton – Lorentz2:07
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Laughton – Maccelli – McMann7:44
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Lorentz – Quillan5:07
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStecher – Benoit10:44
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- McCabe – Benoit2:09
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – McCabe12:58
xG 0.54–0.63 (47%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).