Tue, Dec 30, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 3, Florida Panthers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 010 | 210 | 12 | 329 |
| FLA | 09 | 08 | 211 | 02 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 10:18FLABrad MarchandPPAssists: Sam Bennett, Seth Jones · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 15:01FLASam ReinhartAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P3 15:33MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Lane Hutson, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 18:38MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Ivan Demidov, Cole Caufield · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 3:24MTLNick SuzukiPPGWGAssists: Lane Hutson, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:51FLAUvis Balinskis: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:01FLAAaron Ekblad: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:15MTLLane Hutson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:37MTLNick Suzuki: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:40MTLAdam Engstrom: Interference2 min
- P3 4:17FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:55MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 1:27FLABrad Marchand: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Texier – Caufield11:32
xG 1.09–0.26 (81%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Blais – Veleno6:05
xG 0.38–0.13 (74%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Danault – Anderson – Bolduc8:15
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov9:48
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Hutson3:16
xG 0.63–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Hutson – Engstrom2:05
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Carrier – Hutson11:01
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestKunin – Boqvist – Studnicka5:28
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Greer – Rodrigues – Samoskevich9:10
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell11:30
xG 0.18–0.29 (38%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Marchand – Verhaeghe – Bennett9:35
xG 0.22–1.21 (15%)attempts 3–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Balinskis10:16
xG 0.03–0.09 (29%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Jones – Mikkola15:22
xG 0.28–0.68 (29%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling16:16
xG 0.34–1.38 (20%)attempts 13–23goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).