Tue, Dec 30, 2025·United Center, Chicago
New York Islanders 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 210 | 04 | 06 | 01 | 1 | 321 |
| CHI | 07 | 27 | 03 | 02 | 0 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:56NYICalum RitchieAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Maxim Shabanov · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 12:08NYIBo HorvatPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Matthew Schaefer · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 15:31CHITeuvo TeravainenAssists: Oliver Moore, Artyom Levshunov · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 19:57CHINick LardisPPAssists: Oliver Moore, Ryan Greene · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CHI Nick Lardis stopped
- 2. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 3. CHI Teuvo Teravainen stopped
- 4. NYI Bo Horvat scored
- 5. CHI Ryan Donato stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:32CHIAndre Burakovsky: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:08CHINick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:49NYIBo Horvat: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 7:21CHIIlya Mikheyev: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:21NYIMathew Barzal: Roughing2 min
- OT 2:43CHIArtyom Levshunov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestHolmstrom – Ritchie – Shabanov8:53
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Cizikas – Duclair – Gatcomb8:05
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Drouin10:32
xG 0.62–0.56 (53%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Horvat – Barzal – Heineman15:01
xG 0.25–0.47 (35%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Warren9:17
xG 0.50–0.34 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Mayfield – DeAngelo2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Pulock – Schaefer16:45
xG 0.46–0.49 (49%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Lardis – Moore8:59
xG 0.40–0.07 (86%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Foligno – Donato – Mikheyev6:25
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Bertuzzi – Greene8:51
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Slaggert – Dach2:09
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Grzelcyk12:52
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Crevier14:32
xG 0.37–0.36 (50%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
- Murphy – Vlasic2:22
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).