Tue, Dec 30, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Philadelphia Flyers 6, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 15 | 219 | 39 | 633 |
| VAN | 110 | 09 | 216 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45VANDavid KampfAssists: Drew O'Connor, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 12:02PHINoah CatesAssists: Matvei Michkov, Bobby Brink · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 3:40PHICarl GrundstromAssists: Nikita Grebenkin, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 16:20PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Jamie Drysdale, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 1:08VANDrew O'ConnorAssists: David Kampf · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 1:34PHIBobby BrinkGWGAssists: Matvei Michkov, Noah Cates · Deflected, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 17:19PHIOwen TippettENAssists: Rodrigo Abols, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.61 xG5–2
- P3 18:16VANTom WillanderUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 19:23PHIChristian DvorakENAssists: Trevor Zegras, Travis Konecny · Poke, 0.71 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:44VANEvander Kane: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:44PHINick Seeler: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:14PHIBobby Brink: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:25PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:25VANFilip Hronek: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:19PHITravis Sanheim: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:01VANMarcus Pettersson: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:29PHIJamie Drysdale: Interference2 min
- P3 15:32PHICarl Grundstrom: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Brink – Michkov8:03
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Couturier – Tippett – Barkey8:57
xG 0.59–0.44 (58%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Abols – Grundstrom – Grebenkin8:28
xG 0.38–0.39 (49%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Dvorak – Konecny – Zegras12:13
xG 0.49–0.77 (39%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York8:47
xG 0.67–0.06 (92%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Andrae – Drysdale12:18
xG 1.09–0.78 (58%)attempts 21–19goals 2–0
- Ristolainen – York3:09
xG 0.08–0.09 (48%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKampf – Sherwood – O'Connor10:55
xG 1.08–0.42 (72%)attempts 18–10goals 3–0
- DeBrusk – Karlsson – Sasson7:20
xG 0.26–0.06 (80%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Kane – DeBrusk – Pettersson2:51
xG 0.22–0.08 (73%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Ohgren – Sasson4:15
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Hronek6:25
xG 0.63–0.04 (94%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Myers – Joseph4:02
xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Willander2:04
xG 0.22–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).