Wed, Dec 31, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Nashville Predators 4, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 310 | 16 | 03 | 419 |
| VGK | 29 | 04 | 018 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:35VGKMark StonePPAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Noah Hanifin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 9:06VGKBen HuttonAssists: Tomas Hertl, Pavel Dorofeyev · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 11:20NSHNick PerbixAssists: Luke Evangelista · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 15:37NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Luke Evangelista · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P1 16:21NSHReid SchaeferGWGAssists: Brady Skjei, Michael McCarron · Snap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 11:52NSHMichael BuntingPPAssists: Nick Blankenburg, Erik Haula · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:24NSHErik Haula: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:16VGKBrett Howden: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:39NSHNicolas Hague: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:35VGKAlexander Holtz: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:18VGKKeegan Kolesar: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:18VGKKeegan Kolesar: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:18VGKKeegan Kolesar: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:31VGKBen Hutton: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 13:33NSHMichael McCarron: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Bunting – Evangelista9:31
xG 0.45–0.02 (95%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Jost – Svechkov – Wood6:02
xG 0.36–0.29 (56%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Forsberg10:44
xG 0.35–0.33 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- McCarron – Smith – Schaefer9:06
xG 0.25–0.42 (37%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Skjei – Wilsby14:03
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Josi – Perbix12:03
xG 0.50–0.82 (38%)attempts 12–22goals 1–1
- Hague – Blankenburg12:18
xG 0.34–0.74 (32%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Howden – Bowman3:29
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Stone – Marner3:19
xG 0.30–0.07 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Hertl – Barbashev – Dorofeyev3:22
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hertl – Dorofeyev – Holtz4:46
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Korczak5:11
xG 0.22–0.00 (98%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Whitecloud4:24
xG 0.15–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hutton – Hanifin7:37
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).