Wed, Dec 31, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New Jersey Devils 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 010 | 012 | 311 | 333 |
| CBJ | 110 | 118 | 07 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:18CBJMason MarchmentAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Dysin Mayo · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 13:41CBJCharlie CoyleAssists: Boone Jenner, Cole Sillinger · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 2:49NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Luke Hughes, Jack Hughes · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 3:44NJDArseny GritsyukAssists: Timo Meier, Jonas Siegenthaler · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 4:45NJDLuke HughesGWGAssists: Connor Brown, Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:09NJDDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:09NJDDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:45CBJKirill Marchenko: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:40NJDCody Glass: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:40CBJDmitri Voronkov: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:06NJDBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glass won the faceoff against Sillinger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Noesen – Glendening – Cotter4:55
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Palat – Brown – Glass10:38
xG 0.28–0.54 (34%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Bratt – Hischier – Hughes11:29
xG 0.32–0.76 (30%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Meier – Gritsyuk – Mercer8:41
xG 0.19–0.81 (19%)attempts 5–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Pesce – Siegenthaler2:16
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Pesce – Hughes15:51
xG 0.80–1.02 (44%)attempts 18–20goals 1–1
- Dillon – White10:45
xG 0.15–0.41 (27%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Jenner – Olivier10:36
xG 0.92–0.35 (73%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Marchment – Marchenko – Fantilli14:34
xG 0.92–0.45 (67%)attempts 18–14goals 1–2
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Sillinger3:10
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Wood – Voronkov – Sillinger2:40
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Fabbro19:06
xG 1.81–0.82 (69%)attempts 24–25goals 1–1
- Mayo – Christiansen8:38
xG 0.79–0.09 (90%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Severson – Provorov4:36
xG 0.04–0.10 (26%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).