Wed, Dec 31, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
St. Louis Blues 1, Colorado Avalanche 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 04 | 03 | 16 | 113 |
| COL | 420 | 114 | 19 | 643 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:00COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 3:13COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Josh Manson, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 3:26COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Josh Manson, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P1 4:39COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Martin Necas, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.06 xG0–4
- P2 9:41COLBrock NelsonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.09 xG0–5
- P3 14:32STLDalibor DvorskyAssists: Matthew Kessel · Snap, 0.01 xG1–5
- P3 16:06COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Sam Malinski, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–6
Penalties (6)
- P2 8:16STLJake Neighbours: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:07COLJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:50COLParker Kelly: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:32STLJustin Faulk: Interference2 min
- P2 19:51STLJake Neighbours: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:52COLZakhar Bardakov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerggren – Dvorsky – Stenberg2:02
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Snuggerud2:42
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Berggren8:34
xG 0.44–0.48 (48%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Schenn – Kyrou – Neighbours2:01
xG 0.09–0.14 (38%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tucker – Kessel12:40
xG 0.55–0.73 (43%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
- Parayko – Broberg15:37
xG 0.51–1.12 (31%)attempts 7–25goals 0–3
- Faulk – Fowler15:14
xG 0.08–0.99 (7%)attempts 5–26goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Lehkonen – Nichushkin8:13
xG 0.65–0.08 (89%)attempts 16–1goals 2–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Necas11:13
xG 0.88–0.45 (66%)attempts 22–7goals 2–0
- Olofsson – Colton – Drury8:57
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Kelly – Bardakov – Brindley9:09
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Manson13:37
xG 1.16–0.42 (74%)attempts 29–7goals 2–1
- Girard – Malinski14:00
xG 0.55–0.02 (97%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar13:58
xG 0.84–0.53 (62%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).