Wed, Dec 31, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Boston Bruins 6, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 212 | 29 | 28 | 629 |
| EDM | 115 | 010 | 111 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:28BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 18:13BOSCasey MittelstadtAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 19:19EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 7:05BOSHampus LindholmGWGAssists: Fraser Minten, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P2 18:19BOSJonathan AspirotAssists: David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.22 xG4–1
- P3 4:20BOSElias LindholmAssists: Morgan Geekie, Alex Steeves · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 7:22EDMJack RoslovicAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor Ingram · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 14:34BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Fraser Minten, Marat Khusnutdinov · Slap, 0.09 xG6–2
Penalties (18)
- P1 4:22BOSElias Lindholm: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:25EDMZach Hyman: Holding2 min
- P1 6:31EDMConnor Ingram: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min · PPG
- P1 14:39BOSCharlie McAvoy: Holding2 min
- P2 1:00BOSFraser Minten: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:04EDMEvan Bouchard: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:09BOSMorgan Geekie: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:15BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:03EDMAndrew Mangiapane: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:03BOSMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:03BOSMark Kastelic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:03EDMAndrew Mangiapane: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:29EDMMax Jones: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:29BOSJonathan Aspirot: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:20BOSNikita Zadorov: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:20EDMMattias Janmark: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:40BOSSean Kuraly: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:40EDMDarnell Nurse: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Kuraly – Eyssimont – Kastelic4:09
xG 0.16–0.16 (49%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Arvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt8:59
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Geekie – Steeves6:55
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Geekie2:32
xG 0.04–0.19 (17%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Aspirot11:45
xG 0.60–0.39 (61%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Peeke – Lohrei10:40
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Aspirot – Lohrei2:10
xG 0.13–0.12 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid9:04
xG 1.51–0.01 (100%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Henrique – Frederic – Jones5:03
xG 0.19–0.00 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid3:59
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 2–7goals 1–1
- Draisaitl – Roslovic – Podkolzin3:53
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard14:22
xG 1.54–0.44 (78%)attempts 16–8goals 0–2
- Nurse – Bouchard2:31
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Emberson – Stastney10:08
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).