Thu, Jan 1, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Montréal Canadiens 7, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 25 | 311 | 27 | 723 |
| CAR | 310 | 18 | 17 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:10MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Alexandre Texier, Sammy Blais · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 4:06MTLOliver KapanenAssists: Ivan Demidov, Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 10:47CARNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Alexander Nikishin, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P1 12:19CARSebastian AhoAssists: Joel Nystrom, Andrei Svechnikov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- P1 14:51CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Sebastian Aho, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.20 xG2–3
- P2 0:54CARAlexander NikishinPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P2 5:01MTLSammy BlaisAssists: Lane Hutson, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
- P2 16:23MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Alexandre Texier · Snap, 0.13 xG4–4
- P2 16:46MTLJosh AndersonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–4
- P3 11:20MTLJuraj SlafkovskýGWGAssists: Jayden Struble, Ivan Demidov · Snap, 0.04 xG6–4
- P3 16:58CARSebastian AhoAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, K'Andre Miller · Snap, 0.29 xG6–5
- P3 18:00MTLLane HutsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG7–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:58MTLAlexandre Texier: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:45MTLLane Hutson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:47MTLArber Xhekaj: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:12CARSebastian Aho: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Texier – Caufield11:13
xG 0.63–0.48 (57%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Blais – Veleno7:32
xG 0.29–0.23 (55%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Danault – Anderson – Bolduc7:10
xG 0.17–0.16 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Kapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov11:21
xG 0.72–0.89 (45%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Struble8:14
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Struble – Xhekaj8:20
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Dobson – Engstrom8:33
xG 0.56–0.63 (47%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestEhlers – Aho – Svechnikov11:31
xG 1.01–0.64 (61%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier12:09
xG 0.73–0.47 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–2
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake13:49
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Robinson – Kotkaniemi9:22
xG 0.43–0.58 (43%)attempts 7–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestChatfield – Miller19:20
xG 1.25–0.63 (66%)attempts 24–13goals 0–2
- Walker – Nikishin15:42
xG 1.00–0.84 (54%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Reilly – Nystrom11:15
xG 0.12–0.53 (18%)attempts 5–10goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).