Fri, Jan 2, 2026·loanDepot park, MiamiOutdoor game
New York Rangers 5, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 26 | 16 | 28 | 520 |
| FLA | 010 | 015 | 112 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:09NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 16:13NYRArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 0:58NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 2:20FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 12:25NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 18:32NYRMika ZibanejadENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.38 xG5–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:40NYRTaylor Raddysh: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:04NYRVincent Trocheck: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:29FLAJack Studnicka: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 18:52FLAAaron Ekblad: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 2:25NYRVladislav Gavrikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:39NYRJonny Brodzinski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:09NYRMatthew Robertson: Delaying game2 min
- P3 11:21FLAUvis Balinskis: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:38NYRCarson Soucy: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Trocheck – Lafrenière – Perreault8:11
xG 0.62–0.58 (52%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Carrick – Brodzinski – Raddysh2:02
xG 0.09–0.11 (47%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Panarin – Cuylle9:17
xG 0.34–0.43 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Carrick – Berard – Rempe4:31
xG 0.04–0.15 (20%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox12:52
xG 0.55–0.34 (62%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Robertson – Schneider16:20
xG 0.67–0.76 (47%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Soucy – Borgen11:15
xG 0.06–0.87 (6%)attempts 3–27goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Rodrigues – Samoskevich9:03
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Marchand – Verhaeghe – Bennett7:31
xG 0.43–0.16 (73%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Kunin – Boqvist – Studnicka6:01
xG 0.11–0.16 (40%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Reinhart – Lundell3:36
xG 0.01–0.06 (10%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMikkola – Balinskis4:49
xG 0.39–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Petry – Forsling5:30
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Petry – Balinskis6:59
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).